Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Outlook For 30th September

Nifty opened gap down today at 7725 near our second support zone of 7722 - 7707 and made a low of 7691 before recovering sharply with the RBI policy being announced and went on to cross both our upper resistance levels mentioned and tested our extreme volatility resistance levels of 7913 - 7973 given yesterday

Today RBI's monetary policy was a pleasant surprise for the market as the Repo rate was reduced by 50 basis points against a 25 basis point expectation which triggered the recovery from the days low and the Nifty moved higher by nearly 235 points  from the days low . It corrected towards the end of the session today by nearly 100 points from the days high with some profit booking coming in at higher levels to finally close at 7843 which is not a  very bullish close considering the mega event went beyond the market expectations 

Nifty gave a overall move of nearly 350 points with swings on both sides which was expected on a big day like today hence we had advised caution yesterday that one should keep booking profits when  available today as many stop loss would have been triggered.

Levels for tomorrow are

Nifty Spot

Long above 7859 for 7902 – 7924 – 7940 , SL 7827

Short below 7827 for 7779 – 7763 – 7747 , SL 7859

Bank Nifty Spot

Long above 17384 for 17463 – 17566 – 17669 , SL 17179

Short below 17179 for 17099 – 16996 – 16894 , SL 17384





To view all our previous posts kindly go to  https://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Monday, 28 September 2015

Outlook for 29th September

We were expecting Nifty to take resistance at 7883 - 7912 in case of a gap up and Nifty took resistance at 7893.95 just below our Long trigger level of 7895 and stayed range bound for the major part of the day.  We had mentioned that the last one hour should give a big move today and Nifty gave a sharp down move of nearly 80 points .

Towards the end Nifty took support at 7787.95 within our expected 2nd range of 7794 - 7779 which we were expecting to get tested today below 7823.

The world markets are in good red now at the time of writing this post , so one can expect a gap down opening and then the rest of the days action would depend on RBI's monetary policy which would be announced at 11.00 am . There is a hope of a 25 basis point rate cut in the interest rates and also a 25 basis point rate cut in the reverse repo rate , any disappointment can lead to a deeper correction if already down after opening and similarly one can expect recovery too if the market expectations are lived up to.

Whatever be the outcome one should be prepared for a highly volatile trading session tomorrow as we may see stop loss getting triggered on both sides . So one should trade cautiously and keep booking small profits as and when available

As per today’s close if Nifty spot opens gap up, then it will face resistance near 7810 – 7840 initially and  breaking above that next resistance at 7870 - 7884 can get tested . Similarly if Nifty spot opens gap down then it will get support near 7781 – 7751 levels initially and breaking below that next support at 7722 - 7707 can get tested .

In case of extreme volatility we might see 7678 - 7620 being tested on the downside or  7913 - 7973 on the upside .


Levels for tomorrow are

Nifty Spot
Long above 7812 for 7862 – 7878 – 7895 , SL 7779
Short below 7779 for 7730 – 7713 – 7696 , SL 7812

Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17198 for 17274 – 17372 – 17470 , SL 17000
Short below 17000 for 16927 – 16829 – 16731 , SL 17198

To view all our previous posts kindly go to  https://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Saturday, 26 September 2015

Outlook for 28th September


We were expecting Nifty to test 7832 - 7802 support initially , and Nifty made a low of 7804 and reversed from there to go higher and took resistance near our expected level of 7860 - 7890 by making a high 7894 before closing at 7868. 

This is another lower monthly close if compared with the previous expiry indicating that bearishness is still there in the market.

Now everyone would be waiting to see what happens on Tuesday, 29th of September when RBI announces its monetary policy wherein a rate cut is expected by a majority. So the last one hour on Monday would be interesting as big players would take positions ahead of the event .

As per today’s close if Nifty spot opens gap up, then it will face resistance near 7883 – 7912 initially and  breaking above that next resistance at 7942 - 7957 can get tested . Similarly if Nifty spot opens gap down then it will get support near 7853 – 7823 levels initially and breaking below that next support at 7794 - 7779 can get tested .

One should exercise caution once Nifty nears 8022 - 8046 as that is where the supply is coming and only 2 close above 8073 can open doors for higher levels 


Levels for tomorrow are

Nifty Spot
Long above 7895 for 7937 – 7955 – 7972 , SL 7851
Short below 7851 for 7800 – 7781 – 7764 , SL 7885

Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17300 for 17380 – 17482 – 17585 , SL 17094
Short below 17094 for 17014 – 16911 – 16809 , SL 17300

To view all our previous posts kindly go to  https://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Nifty and Bank Nifty Outlook for 24th September

Yesterday we had mentioned that Nifty can test  7723 on downside and Nifty did exactly the same by opening at 7737 and making a low of 7723.35 . We had also mentioned that on the upside Nifty can test 7885 - 7900 and Nifty made a high of 7882.9 and gave a close at 7845.95.

Those who would have gone long at 7723 , would have  got nearly 150 points on the swing trade in Nifty today.
  
Tomorrow is the last day of this current series and should be a action packed day again.

As per today’s close if Nifty spot opens gap up, then it will face resistance near 7860 – 7890 initially and  breaking above that next resistance at 7920 - 7935 can get tested . Similarly if 
Nifty spot opens gap down then it will get support near 7832 – 7802 levels initially and breaking below that next support at 7773 - 7758 can get tested .

Reversal Point for Nifty Spot tomorrow is at 7891 & for Bank Nifty Spot at 17015 which should be watched by traders.  

VIX has closed back at  20.68 and PCR is at 1.05

Expiry Range tomorrow for Nifty is 7760 – 7930 

Levels for tomorrow are

Nifty Spot
Long above 7864 for 7917 – 7934 – 7952 , SL 7828
Short below 7828 for 7775 – 7757 – 7740 , SL 7864

Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17360 for 17442 – 17547 – 17652 , SL 17150
Short below 17150 for 17069 – 16964 – 16859 , SL 17360

To view all our previous posts kindly go to  http://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com 

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Nifty and Bank Nifty Outlook for 23rd September

We have been mentioning since we made 8055 that 'One test of 7790 -7770  can come as we have mentioned in our previous post too as markets never go up in a straight line'

Today we got that fall after Nifty opened gap up by 25 points . Had mentioned yesterday just 3 days left for this expiry and we can expect wild swings on both sides in the coming days and today we saw a big move on the downside.

Nifty spot today made a low of 7787.75 and also broke and closed below its reversal point of 7821 mentioned yesterday ,so some more correction can be expected tomorrow till 7723 .

As per today’s close if Nifty spot opens gap up then it will face resistance near 7826 – 7856 initially and  breaking above that next resistance at 7885 - 7900 can get tested . Similarly if 
Nifty spot opens gap down then it will get support near 7797 – 7767 levels initially and breaking below that next support at 7738 - 7723 can get tested .

Now we would need Nifty to give a close above 7885 to resume the upmove .

Reversal Point for Nifty Spot tomorrow is at 7884 & for Bank Nifty Spot at 16947 which should be watched by traders.  

VIX recovered strongly and closed back at  20.34 and PCR at 1.03

Expiry Range for Nifty after Mondays close is 7700 – 7930

Levels for tomorrow are

Nifty Spot
Long above 7830 for 7883 – 7901 – 7918 , SL 7794
Short below 7794 for 7741 – 7723 – 7706 , SL 7830

Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17136 for 17216 – 17321 – 17425 , SL 16927
Short below 16927 for 16846 – 16742 – 16638 , SL 17136

To view all our previous posts kindly go to  http://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com 

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Monday, 21 September 2015

Nifty and Bank Nifty Outlook for 22nd September

As mentioned yesterday Nifty opened gap down below 7965 and tested our first target of 7911 and made a low of 7908 and closed near the high point of the day near 7977.10 .
We have just 3 days left for this expiry and we can expect wild swings on both sides in the coming days.
As per today's close if Nifty spot opens gap up then it will face resistance near 8052 - 8067 initially and  breaking above 8067 we may see 8097 being tested . Similarly if Nifty spot opens gap down then it will get support near 7902 - 7888 levels initially and breaking below 7888 we may see  7858 being tested . 
Now we would need Nifty to give a close above 8090 – 8102 resistance for any further upside.
One test of 7790 -7770  can come as we have mentioned in our previous post too as markets never go up in a straight line.
Reversal Point for Nifty Spot tomorrow is at 7821 & for Bank Nifty Spot at 16677 which should be watched by traders.  Now a close below 7820 on Nifty spot and 16670 on Bank Nifty spot would indicate that the upward move is over and we can go back and test 7540.
VIX is currently at 18.17 and PCR at 1.14 
Expiry Range for Nifty after Mondays close is 7840 – 8110 .
Levels for tomorrow are
Nifty Spot
Long above 7995 for 8048 – 8065 – 8083 , SL 7959
Short below 7959 for 7907 – 7889 – 7871 , SL 7995
Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17650 for 17730 – 17835 – 17940 , SL 17435
Short below 17435 for 17360 – 17255 – 17150 , SL 17650

For all our previous posts kindly go to https://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com
Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL

Sunday, 20 September 2015

Nifty and Bank Nifty Outlook for 21st September

We were expecting Nifty to test 8055 on sustaining above 7940 - 7965 and on Friday Nifty opened gap up above 7945 and went on to make a high of 8055 before closing the day at 7981.90 . Those who would have taken a trade as per our view posted on 14th September last weekend would have made 250+ points on the long side in Nifty and nearly 750+ points in Bank Nifty.
Now we would need Nifty to give a close above 8090 - 8102 resistance for any further upside.
One test of 7790 -7770  can come now in our view as we have mentioned in our previous post too as markets never go up in a straight line.
Reversal Point for Nifty Spot tomorrow is at 7782 & for Bank Nifty Spot at 16627 which should be watched by traders. From Monday we start the last 4 days of this expiry and would head into the half yearly results season from 01st October. Two consecutive close below 7770 on Nifty and 16480 on Bank Nifty would indicate that the upward journey is over and we can go back and test 7540. 
VIX has crashed to close at 18.29 eroding all the premiums of calls and puts . 
Expiry Range for Nifty as of Fridays close is 7829 - 8135 which has gone up due to lower Vix .
Those who like to trade in options can take positions on Monday as premiums are down now.;
Levels for tomorrow are
Nifty Spot
Long above 8000 for 8053 – 8071 – 8089 , SL 7964
Short below 7964 for 7911 – 7893 – 7875 , SL 8000
Bank Nifty Spot
Long above 17515 for 17595 – 17698 – 17800 , SL 17305
Short below 17305 for 17225 – 17120 – 17000 , SL 17515
We would be posting at  http://simplytradestocks.blogspot.in from 21st September onwards.

For all previous posts kindly visit http://simplytradestocks.wordpress.com

Disclaimer : These are my personal views and trades taken on them should be done with a strict SL