Saturday, 18 February 2017

Weekly Spot Outlook of Nifty for 20th to 24th February

NIFTY

This week Nifty spot went down 81 points over last weeks close , then went up by 103 points and finally ended the week with a gain of 28 points compared to last weekly closing.


As per levels given for the previous week Nifty Spot needed to break and sustain above 8855 to confirm uptrend and Nifty spot needed to break and sustain below 8733 to confirm downtrend for the week. Nifty made a high of 8896.45 and a low of 8712.85 for the week.

This week Nifty initially triggered our short trade and completed 2 targets . It then reversed and triggered our long trade and completed our initial 3 weekly long targets . When Nifty had confirmed our weekly shorts , Bank Nifty had failed to confirm its weekly shorts indicating that Nifty might reverse . This reversal was due to the FII fresh buying allowed in HDFC Bank which has a heavy weightage in Bank Nifty too . Had mentioned in the previous weekly post that ' Now Nifty needs to sustain above 8855 this week for the up move to continue till 9052 with resistance near 8892 - 8919 levels' and we saw Nifty make a high of 8896.45 and take resistance . 

Have been mentioning since November in the weekly posts 'Those who are holding positional longs or those who are looking to enter on dips should keep a strict CBSL of 7895 for their positions.' . We saw Nifty make a low of 7893.80 in the last week of December and reverse by around 1000+ points till now with Fridays high . Now Nifty needs to sustain above 8857 this week for the up move to continue till 8972 with resistance near 8895 - 8904 levels Breaking and sustaining below 8786 this week we can see a down move till 8672 with support near 8749 - 8739 levels

For the month of February we can expect uptrend in Nifty spot on a consecutive close above 8696 and downtrend in Nifty spot on a consecutive close below 8427 . Had mentioned in January that we can expect uptrend in Nifty spot on a consecutive close above 8329 and we got a move of nearly 400+ points from there . 

Nifty has given a further up move of 200 points after closing above our monthly long confirmation level of 8696 . Had mentioned in the previous weekly post 'It now has a resistance zone near 8780 - 8840 and has been taking resistance there the whole of last week . Nifty needs to break above this zone and sustain above 8875 for a further up move' and we saw Nifty break above 8875 but was unable to sustain and again closed within the resistance zone again . Now in this week if Nifty is unable to break above 8875 - 8904 levels then we can expect a correction till 8670 levels .  Those who are holding positional longs or those who are looking to enter fresh longs on any corrections this week should keep a strict cbsl of 8737 spot for the positions. The current rally is now looking a bit saturated and if Nifty fails to break and sustain above the resistance zone then we may see a correction till the lower level mentioned once Nifty sustains or closes below the cbsl level of 8737 as we are also entering into the expiry week for this series.

In the coming week Nifty spot needs to break and sustain above 8857 to confirm uptrend and then one can expect a move till 8895 initially and breaking and sustaining above 8904 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us up till 8972. Similarly Nifty spot needs to break and sustain below 8786 to confirm downtrend and then one can expect a move till 8749 initially and breaking and sustaining below 8739 will give further confirmation for the next move which can take us down till 8671 . 


Nifty Spot Levels for the week are

Long above 8844 , Tgt  8857 - 8868 - 8879

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain above 8895 then ,

long again for 8904 - 8937 - 8972

Short below 8800 , Tgt 8786 - 8775 - 8764

IF Nifty spot manages to get a close / sustain below 8749 then, 

short again for 8739 - 8707 - 8671


P.S. Always wait for the yellow highlighted levels to be crossed after taking a long/short position for confirmation of the trade . Once the highlighted levels are crossed and the next target is achieved move your Stoploss to the highlighted levels .

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Disclaimer : These are my personal views and one should do their own research before entering any trades based on them  . The use of the blog is agreement that the blog is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute advice in any form in the furtherance of any trade or trading decisions.